A reliable source has given me a rather exact date on when he is expecting the election. He has heard that Brown is fearing a double-dip recession so wants to get the election out of the way, should this be the case.
Sorry to startle/worry any campaigners out there but you might want to get your skates on – it’s exactly 2 months today.
Previous information I have had from the source have been correct so I think this is a certain possibility.
Popularity: 19% [?]
Election date: 8th April
Won’t happen as she’s just starting her second term as chancellor but I wonder why the Poles love her so much. I bet if we included her name in a poll here her popularity percentage wouldn’t reach double figures.
Deutsche Presse – Warsaw – Some 28 per cent of Poles would back German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the European Union presidency, said a survey Friday in the daily Rzeczpospolita.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair got some 17 per cent of support among the Polish public, according to the telephone survey conducted by GfK Polonia. The newspaper didn’t indicate the size of the survey’s sample.
European Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso came third, with 15 per cent of the votes, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy received 7 per cent.
Under the terms of the Lisbon Treaty, the current six-month rotational system for the presidency of the European Council would be replaced with a permanent EU president.
I’m sure Blair will be happy with coming second (first out of those with a realistic chance) but I wonder if that’s because he’s allowed so many Polish families into Britain to get ‘better lives’, where many found that the grass wasn’t greener.
Popularity: unranked [?]
Poland wants Merkel as EU President
Unfortunately I missed a YouGov meeting this morning which was launching the results of their first ever poll across Wales. The sample is of 1078 people and takes place between October 21st-23rd.
The main news is
Labour 34%
Conservative 31%
Lib-Dems 12%
Plaid Cymru 15%
Others 7%
Seats:
Labour 20 (-9)
Conservative 12 (+9)
Lib-Dems 2 (-2)
Plaid Cymru 5 (+2)
Others 1
I’m quite shocked that Plaid Cymru have less support than the Conservatives – less than half to be precise! I get the impression from my group of friends that people do believe that Plaid Cymru are the real voice of Wales and Welsh independence. Despite their relatively low showing on the Wales-wide vote on who they’d vote for, the full-law making powers question was asked with alarming results:
“Would you support or oppose the idea of holding a referendum on giving the NAW full law making powers?”
%
Support holding referendum 63
Oppose holding referendum 20
Don’t know 17
“If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly of Wales full law making powers how would you vote?”
%
Yes 42
No 37
Wouldn’t Vote/Don’t know 21
I’ve not seen a poll where more people have wanted full law-making powers than not. I don’t know if it’s nationalism that’s wanting this or people actually believe it will be for the good of their country.
This is what people believed of the leaders:
So Carwyn Jones is the clear favourite favourite with voters (and Cardiff Blogger), but will Labour make the right decision? It seems they have no faith in any of the main party leaders at Westminster – Cameron less than Brown and Clegg surprisingly.
I think the Conservatives will be happy with this poll, I underestimated their support here. Let’s hope that it remains the same (or gets even better) for us when Labour elects their new leader in Wales.
Popularity: 6% [?]
YouGov polls Wales for the first time ever – the results!
This poll is certainly not something I’m surprised about. Labour having their turn of a post-conference boost with the Lib Dems losing their post-conference boost they had last time. It’s interesting to see the Conservatives getting a jolt back into the 40’s and is something that has happened because of how suicidal both the Lib Dem and Labour conferences have gone. They were meant to showcase talent and be a propagandafest, instead it’s caused problems for both. If the Tories manage a successful conference as they did 2 years ago then I wonder if they’ll break the magical 50% barrier. Unlikely but not impossible.
Popularity: unranked [?]
New ComRes poll is no big surprise
Gordon with former Labour MP, Seymour Cocks
Gordon Brown is ready to debate with David Cameron on TV not just during the general election campaign but before it, the BBC understands.
The prime minister is said to be deciding overnight whether to include in his speech to the Labour conference a call for a series of debates.
Of course he bloody will! Labour need all the help they can get and in my opinion, Gordon Brown may save a few seats. Or lost a lot more. In other news, the latest Ipsos-MORI poll puts the post-Lib Dem mood at: ‘Tories on 36%, Labour on 24% and the Liberal Democrats on 25%.’
Oof!
Popularity: 3% [?]
BREAKING NEWS: Brown agrees to debate after Lib Dems move ahead of Labour
This would have made a good 100th blogpost but unfortunately it’s the 101st.
I am amazed at how well Cardiff Blogger has performed in the Total Politics Top Political Blogs this year. I only started blogging a week before the voting window closed, I assume it gained votes from the now deceased The Right Student website which is a passing only surpassed in emotion by Michael Jackson and now Patrick Swayze.
Looking at the table we have the usual suspects hogging the top – Guido Fawkes and Iain Dale. I admit voting for both of them but Iain before Guido. I find Guido can be a bit too harsh (Brown’s constant mental illness mocking is a bit too much for me) and in his blog’s comments there’s as much intelligent debate going on as an @BevaniteEllie and @KerryMP twitter conversation.
Political Betting is my favourite blog, purely for how interesting their articles are and how news stories are often broken in the comments. It’s more like a political chat room than a noticeboard or journal. Paul Waugh makes an incredible new entry in at 7, well deserved but next year I think he should keep his computer with him on holiday, he was missed.
Nadine Dorries slips to 46 and I imagine she’ll slip even further next year now she’s banned comments on her blog. It’s pretty irritating when she writes something I disagree with (or sometimes agree) and we have to just bottle it up.
Other fantastic blogs that deserve a mention include Ellee Seymour, Malc In The Burgh, Old Holborn, Dylan Jones-Evans, Organised Chaos and all in my blogroll which I read frequently. I don’t just shove anyone on my blogroll, only the best!
Next year’s objective is to push a few Plaid bloggers down in the rankings. I’ve no idea how so many of them occupy the top spots in Wales but it needs to change. Get Plaid Out!
Popularity: 19% [?]
My Review of the Top 100 blogs
Conservatives – 44 %Wow, a sensational new poll out for the News of the World puts the Tories up to 44%, 24 above Labour who are only 2% above the Lib Dems! It’s by a pollster who isn’t registered with the BPC and their poll they did last year was similarly bad for Labour.
I can’t take this poll very seriously and I think it’s a rogue one. Excellent for the optimistic among us but I think we should wait for an official poll before rushing to any judgements.
UPDATE: This pollster surveyed the 30 marginal constituencies so it’s no surprise the Tories are doing so well. Now let’s look ahead to the real polls.
Popularity: 10% [?]
Incredible new poll puts Tories 24 points ahead
Conservatives 40% (-2)
Labour 25% (NC)
Lib Dems 20% (+2)
The poll which everyone seemed to miss was released in The Peephole this weekend and it shows what appears to be Conservative support slipping to the Liberal Democrats. I’m certainly going to take this with a pinch of salt as most people who follow polls realise that when David Cameron isn’t in the headlines the Conservative ratings tend to dip. We have conference season coming up and in the months before the election I’m sure David Cameron will be everywhere. So no need to panic if you’re a Conservative – 40% with a lead of 15% is fantastic.
Labour seem to be stuck in a rut – with polls and about everything else in their party whereas the Liberal Democrats have their best percentage for over a year with YouGov. This will surely please them for the time being but I can’t see it sticking.
What amazes me is the high vote share ‘Others’ are still getting. I think there is a possibility of a UKIP MP or two coming in at the next election and feel they’ll grow from there. They’re establishing themselves as the ‘fourth party’ and if Labour weren’t doing so badly they could challenge the Lib Dems for third (we’re a long way off that). I’m going to make a long term predictment; I believe that UKIP will have MP’s in double figures by 2030.
Popularity: unranked [?]
New YouGov poll – Tories shouldn’t worry
I know that the heading may cause you to spit out your Cheerios but if you felt that The Right Student deserved a place in your top ten and you like the way this blog is going then do please vote for me! I’m sure it will be the youngest blog included in the directory/chart and would certainly give this site a fantastic early boost that it needs.
To vote, simply select your top ten political blogs (if you’re stuck for ideas, look at the blogroll on the right) and email them to toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com – make sure they’re ranked!
If I make it in there I’ll be astounded so please do and I’ll give you all cwtches!
Popularity: 10% [?]
Vote for me in the Top Political Blogs!Right, an explanation.
I can now reveal that I am Benny Austwick, the other half (better half :p) of The Right Student. TRS has been down for over a month now as the web host was taken over by someone, didn’t send out invoices and is now refusing to answer any of our emails. I’m not sure how likely it is that it’ll return.
Anyway, The Right Student is no more.
Since I returned from my holiday I have wanted to keep on blogging, therefore whilst TRS was down I started up Dry Tory, relieving my need for blogging and earning a few fans along the way (thanks to all who added me to your blogroll!). Now The Right Student is no more, I have decided to ‘come out’, reveal my identity and rename the blog to Cardiff Blogger.
My twitter has also changed to www.twitter.com/Cardiff_Blogger so please add me on there!
Popularity: unranked [?]
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